Russia’s arrest of Paul Whelan, a court-martialed Marine Corps private, on espionage charges, has triggered speculation about a possible trade for Maria Butina, convicted Russian agent and one of the world’s worst spies in 2018
According to a Russian news agency, Whelan was arrested in Moscow last week, just minutes after receiving a USB memory stick containing a list of all of the employees at a classified security agency.
Whelan, who possesses passports from four countries, works as security chief for BorgWarner, an international auto parts manufacturer.
Whelan’s Work
Meduza, an independent Russia new site, reports that
The anonymous Telegram channel Nezygar has written several times about Paul Whelan this week, reporting that he worked for the American management consulting company Kelly Services until 2017 (before joining BorgWarner). According to its website, Kelly Services has a head office in Moscow and 12 branches throughout Russia.
The report, if true, suggesst why Russian’s domestic intelligence service, the FSB, would be interested in Whelan: his company was in contact with talented young Russians.
According to another Telegram channel reposted by Nezygar, Kelly Services recruiters focus on students at top Russian universities. The company’s “strategic partners” allegedly include St. Petersburg State University and its elite Higher School of Management. By cooperating with Kelly Services, the Telegram channels claim, top students are able to continue their education at U.S. schools.
On Facebook, Kirill Rogov, analyst for an independent Russian think tank, mocked the report in Rosbalt, which was based on an anonymous intelligence source. The only explanation for arresting Whelan with physical evidence like this, Rogov says, is that Russian officials needed a visual stunt suited to television cameras.
Spy for Spy?
Bill Browder, exiled hedge fund speculator, argues that Russia is taking a hostage to secure the release of Butina. Browder, the grandson of a American communist leader, made a fortune in Russian markets as Putin rose to power. Browder lost the fortune when the Russian government prosecuted him for tax fraud, a charge Browder denies.
Paul Whelan I believe was taken as a leverage for Vladimir Putin in response to the Maria Butina prosecution in Washington. And Vladimir Putin very much doesn’t want her to talk to U.S. authorities. And he was in a very weak position and he needed to change that negotiating position, and so he looked for a hostage. And I believe that the Paul Whelan arrest fits right into that pattern of behavior.
Browder notes that Butina’s mission in American was overseen by Russian banker and Putin confidant Alexander Torshin,
“the most direct evidence yet of that Vladimir Putin was trying to influence the outcome of the U.S. election and Putin doesn’t want that to go to fruition. And so needs to try to create some type of counterpoint. And the best counterpoint is to take a former Marine who was visiting Russia for a wedding, grab him, accuse him of espionage and then create a negotiating position out of that.”
Sam Greene, a progressive British political analyst based London, observed on Twitter that “Russian media aren’t really running” with the story of Whelan’s arrest. He likens the Whelan story to the comic misadventures of “Ruslan Boshirov” and “Alexander Petrov,” two GRU officers, who also qualified as some of the worst spies of 2018.
Court filings, reported last month by CNN, indicate that Butina has been called to talk to U.S. prosecutors, which may mean she is testifying to grand juries empaneled by special prosecutor Robert Mueller.
The fact that Butina’s plea agreement calls for her to return to Russia doesn’t necessarily mean Putin isn’t trying to pry her out of the United States, sooner rather than later.
Bottom line: If this isn’t a hostage situation, it will soon turn into one soon.
